Oof... Sorry Winky, I'm not liking all of these picks here... I'm going to lay off of the Preds now that Jay Taylor is out and Gruden is threatening to go for it on every 4th down... and lord knows about kickoffs... So the answer here is many many points... Expect the Preds to onside kick probably 30% of the time that they score, and because they're going to go for is on every 4th down knowing Gruden (who might go for 2 every TD as well to keep this guy named "Hinsley" off of the field), expect some excess points once again, like the first time these teams played. So today, in addition to the already bet, I've got...
Orlando/New York over 102 (5 units +100): No kicker + Aaron Garcia should = lots of points... I hope I'm wrong because I don't think the Preds can shoot out with the Dragons, but this is a generous number in this situation. Orlando not having a kicker is probably worth about 10 points in the o/u and another 4 for New York... Meaning NY moneyline is a great play, but I can't play against my Preds like that.
Tampa (ml) @ Georgia (1.5 units +167): Don't ever... EVER give me Tim Marcum's team at over 2.50-1. Never. Not at home, not on the road, not on the moon... Not against anyone. I've been saying this one all week to my friends... Tampa's gonna beat Georgia this week and they're gonna do it by playing Tim Marcum, Tampa Bay Storm football. This was a horrible draw for Georgia, but whether it was Orlando or Tampa it was a horrible draw.
Chicago (ml) @ Los Angeles (2.5 units +138): I've got the better team in a better spot, on a hotter streak (1 straight... lol)... I've got a dangerous team, I've got a hungry team... I've got the better QB, I've got the better group of WRs, I've got the better defense.... But I'm going into a nasty place to go play football against a team that seems like it's blessed. Here's hoping that the aura surrounding Los Angeles ends today, but if the Avengers win, I don't think anyone around the league is going to be overly disappointed. LA is a feel good story, but Cinderella almost never wins the championship.
Colorado (ml) vs. San Jose (2 units +131): I hate this play. I really do. San Jose is the best team in the AFL and they should be favorites to win it all, despite the fact that they're the 4 seed in the West... Colorado's played horrible football of late, and I don't know what leads me to believe that they're going to get it done today, but the Crush are a deadly home team, and a packed Pepsi Center should help them out a lot more than they did in that 89-41 thrashing about a month's time ago. Mark Grieb will throw an incompletion today... promise... But the Sabercats ran up the score in search of the record by leaving Grieb in the VAST majority of the game that was over at halftime, and Dailey knows this... One of the best coaches in the AFL will find a way to get it done at home against the defending champs.
No props this week... I'm disappointed... Maybe next week when both games are on NBC. Best of luck to whomever your teams are this week.
--AFLGuru
